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BJP Could Lose 55 Seats in UP in 2019: India Today-Karvy Survey

A survey conducted by the India Today group in association with Karvy predicted a clean sweep victory for the Opposition alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh while the BJP will lose at least 55 seats out of 80.

The survey predicted two scenarios.

The alliance of SP-BSP-RLD is predicted to get 58 seats, reducing the BJP-Apna Dal alliance to 18 seats.

The alliance of SP-BSP-RLD-Congress is predicted to get 75 seats, reducing the BJP-Apna Dal alliance to 5 seats.
The SP-BSP-RLD-Congress put together had won a total of five seats out of 80 in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, while the BJP-Apna Dal combine had won 73.

The survey was conducted across 2478 people between 28 January, 2018 to 8 January, 2019 across 20 Lok Sabha constituencies.

According to the survey, while the vote share of the BJP-Apna Dal alliance is predicted to fall from 43.3 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2019, the Congress’ vote share is expected to rise from 7.5 percent in 2014 to 12 percent in 2019. The vote share of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance predicted to rise from 42.8 percent in 2014 to 46 percent in 2019.

At present, Congress has only two Lok Sabha seats of Amethi and Raebareli from Uttar Pradesh.

The party had joined hands with the SP in the Assembly elections in 2017, but that alliance lost to the BJP. Congress won only seven seats in the 403-member assembly.

In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won 71 seats while its ally Apna Dal came out victorious in two seats. The NDA had a vote share of around 42 percent in the 2014 polls.

The state of Uttar Pradesh is considered crucial for the general elections. After the Congress was left out of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in the state, the party announced that it will contest from all 80 seats.

The survey has been released on the heels of the Congress on Wednesday, 23 January, appointed Priyanka Gandhi as the General Secretary of AICC UP East while Jyotiraditya Scindia was given charge of UP West.

(With inputs from PTI and Aaj Tak)


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